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Old 03-03-2009, 04:44 PM   #1
bmdbley'sBro
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Harvard economic historian Niall Ferguson: 'There will be blood'



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its actually 'semi good news' for the u.s according to this guy



Quote:


'There will be blood'

Harvard economic historian Niall Ferguson predicts prolonged financial hardship, even civil war, before the ‘Great Recession' ends


Harvard author and financial crisis guru Niall Ferguson has landed with a thud in Ottawa, spreading messages that could make even the most confident policy makers squirm.

The global crisis is far from over, has only just begun, and Canada is no exception, Mr. Ferguson said in an interview before delivering a presentation to public-policy think tank, Canada 2020.

Policy makers and forecasters who see a recovery next year are probably lying to boost public confidence, he said. And the crisis will eventually provoke political conflict, albeit not on the scale of a world war, but violent all the same.

“There will be blood

The Buy America penchant pushed by the U.S. Congress in passing the recent stimulus bill was only the tip of the iceberg.

Abu Dhabi buying Nova Chemicals at bargain-basement prices on Monday is a sign of things to come, with financial power quickly being transferred over to the world's creditors – namely sovereign wealth funds – and away from the world's debtors.

And much of today's mess is the fault of central bankers who targeted consumer-price inflation but purposefully turned a blind eye to asset inflation.

The Laurence A. Tisch professor of history at Harvard University, and author of The Ascent of Money, A Financial History of the World, sat down with The Globe and Mail's economics reporter, Heather Scoffield.



full 5pages

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servl...ageRequested=1
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Old 03-03-2009, 05:01 PM   #2
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he's a loon, but it will get worse before it gets better.
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Old 03-03-2009, 05:08 PM   #3
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good read.

hows he a loon? because he says it how it is?
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Old 03-03-2009, 05:17 PM   #4
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damn and the Bloor Viaduct has the suicide barriers.Oh well back to my double latte.The good news is my mortgage is up for renewal..prime %0.05
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Old 03-03-2009, 06:27 PM   #5
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Wow...wonder how many more know-it-alls are going to come out of the woodwork and state the obvious PLUS put their own twist on things....

We get it... it's a mess and it will be for a while...
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Old 03-03-2009, 06:33 PM   #6
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he's a loon
You're ignorant
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Old 03-03-2009, 06:34 PM   #7
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Wow...wonder how many more know-it-alls are going to come out of the woodwork and state the obvious PLUS put their own twist on things....

We get it... it's a mess and it will be for a while...
deep mess, buddy. you have no idea! the US is essentially bankrupt and is trying to spend its way out of this. add emerging protectionism into the mix.....this is very serious.
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Old 03-03-2009, 06:35 PM   #8
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you guys should read Sprott Asset Management's monthly commentaries. The February one is a little late, but should come out within the next day or so.

http://www.sprott.com/marketoutlook/...sataglance.php
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Old 03-03-2009, 06:46 PM   #9
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deep mess, buddy. you have no idea! the US is essentially bankrupt and is trying to spend its way out of this. add emerging protectionism into the mix.....this is very serious.
Trust me, I have an idea...I follow it as much as you do...but ****, Civil War?! Not gonna happen!
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Old 03-03-2009, 07:35 PM   #10
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Trust me, I have an idea...I follow it as much as you do...but ****, Civil War?! Not gonna happen!
exactly. The guy's a loon.
Its very very bad right now, but its not Civil War 'bad'
2012! Conservative government will be back in the USA
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Old 03-03-2009, 08:03 PM   #11
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did you tools even read the entire article? The first sentence is to GRASP reader attention. But seeing as how most of you probably have an attention span of .01 seconds, you didn't even read the article, and probably have no clue what it is about.

Then you post, in your "smart alecy" ways about "DUDE oMGz hes such a loonie toons talking bout civil warz, thatz nots g0ing to happen in americaz LAWLS IM SO SMART with my high schoolz politics and grade 9 histories.!!11"

Well if you had read the article you would have known that he wasn't talking about civil war in the US. He was talking about uprisings and violent changes in government in regions where there is already great distabilization. That the economic times of today will make it bad enough in some of these regions to tip the balance from what it is today, to perhaps a violent tomorow. A theory, he didn't state it as hard cold fact, he said its a possibility. and it is.

He also talked about alot of things, about the CPI being flawed and putting to much weight on the price of a loaf of bread and no weight on asset pricing,etc. Why do these things matter? Because CPI is what influences how Interest rate is changed by our banks.

Why does that matter? Because interest rates are what we change to halt inflation and keep our economy from going into recesion/etc., Obivolsy more complex then that but it is what it is.

Ya fantastic another guy talking about stuff.... But you can say that about anyone and anything. OF all people to agree to that TNNATIOn who advertises his blog on these forums every day...

Ya Id rather have a 18 year olds opinion on world news - someone whos never left the continent for all I know- over a respect profession for a university that 99% of the people on this board would never in their life get accepted into.
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Old 03-03-2009, 08:15 PM   #12
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I agree with Sirex..no civil wars,he basically identified the regions(Korea an manchuria) that wil go through tougher recovery compared to the US, isnt this amazing.. considering this mess stamped from the USA !!!!

read it and just forget about it.

everyone has an opinion even to the extent on how deep this recession is...

look at it this way.. you have a chance to tell your child/ren that you had lived through a tougher recession compared to the one in 1930 which most of us were not borned yet...
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Old 03-03-2009, 08:47 PM   #13
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I agree with Sirex..no civil wars,he basically identified the regions(Korea an manchuria) that wil go through tougher recovery compared to the US, isnt this amazing.. considering this mess stamped from the USA !!!!

read it and just forget about it.

everyone has an opinion even to the extent on how deep this recession is...

look at it this way.. you have a chance to tell your child/ren that you had lived through a tougher recession compared to the one in 1930 which most of us were not borned yet...


Many may believe we're in the worst recession since the Great Depression, if only because politicians and the press keep repeating that claim. But we need to compare some facts to discern whether this recession is (or will be) "worse" in some sense than those of 1973-75 or 1981-82.

Congressional Budget Office Director Douglas Elmendorf told the House Budget Committee that if the economy is still contracting by mid-year, then this recession will be longer than the 1981-82 and 1973-75 downturns, each of which lasted 16 months. Yet this recession was quite mild until last September. And the severity and human discomfort of downturns can't be measured by their duration.

interesting blog. I don't agree with it all, but it offers a different viewpoint then the standard norm.
http://astuteblogger.blogspot.com/20...ear-worst.html
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Old 03-03-2009, 09:06 PM   #14
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^ not all recessions are created equal. this one was caused by overextended debt in the US, which led to a world banking crisis. this recession is completely different from anyone we've had, so comparing inflation rates and mortgage rates is irrelevant. what will low lending rates do when people aren't spending and the credit markets are frozen? it's hard to get loans right now. you can't have inflation when people aren't spending. i don't know where you got your GDP figures, but both Canadian and US GDP figures are down over 4% year over year.

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Old 03-03-2009, 09:12 PM   #15
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http://www.thestar.com/Business/article/595446

GDP decline heralds long slump

Canada was better off than other industrialized nations. The U.S. economy shrank by 6.2 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2008. Europe was down roughly 6 per cent; Japan was down 12.7 per cent, and Mexico's economic output declined by more than 10 per cent.

"So Canada was the cleanest horse in a muddy race in the quarter," Porter said. "There's no getting around it that was quite a serious pullback for the Canadian economy, but we actually escaped some of the worse damage that we saw around the globe."
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