We had 3 months of CC hype and now 3 months of stability. When you hear about something, its usually too late. This stability now, is called consolidation. Is it an opportunity of finding a bottom price? Perhaps. Things to consider:
The intrinsic value coins have comes from the cost of mining each coin (fixed cost: rent and graphics cards, variable cost electricity bill). Miners accordingly will hold onto their coins rather than selling at below cost of mining.
Now what is interesting over the last 3 months, is that the price has been relatively stable around 10g Canadian. But the production aka the hashrate, from miners has steadily been increasing since april, after being flat since february. In fact if you look in June now, its accelerated its increase of hashrate.
https://blockchain.info/charts/hash-rate?timespan=1year
If supply has increased and the price has stayed the same, there are two possibilities. Demand has kept up with supply, or suppliers are holding off on selling. Or I guess the options market of CC futures has manipulated its movements to the whims of the fat cats.
Another interesting facet I know of is that bitcoin and probably other big coins like bitcoin cash, act as a reservoir for CC traders of the smaller coins. Traders will sell bitcoin to buy a small coin like neo, hold until neo appreciates relatively more (due to pumping or hype or generally higher volatility), then convert it back into more biticoin than they originally started with. Meaning its like bitcoin is cash and the smaller coins are like stocks. This is a good way of pointing out one way bitcoin enables the entire block-chain network.
Now bitcoin may not last forever but its not going anyway anytime soon, its network may eventually become too slow or have too high of a fee rate. When this occurs there will be a natural tendency to start holding another CC. Like silver is to gold. This was the reason for the bitcoin development community to split off into a new coin bitcoin cash.
Another interesting thought I have, is about inflation. As we know inflation makes our cash worth less and less, and is the main reason gold has historically appreciated in value during times of high inflation (not so much the case now as briefly explained ). The problem with the world financial system, which encompasses CCs too since they are now traded on exchanges as well, is that everything typically settles in the US dollar. Even gold ETFs and gold stocks and gold futures you can buy at exchanges settle only on paper and in USD. Add the most traded commodity, oil, which is known as the petrodollar and you get the USD unfair position. Basically the USD is overvalued. Other countries know this for a long time.
China and Russia, many other countries, have been and are impressively ramping up their reserves of gold the last decade. As soon as these countries ramp up their trade of commodities in their national currencies, backed up by gold, or gold based CCs even, the USD will finally experience its much overdue devaluation.
Ultimately, inflation is controlled by interest rates. And if any of you follow economic news you will know how worried governments, which have been running near zero interest rates, are of seeing inflation begin. Because once inflation get above 2% (what EU and the US is hoping to limit it to) they have to raise interest rates. Now that loooong decade period since 2008 of near zero interest rates have fueled a massive debt load across both sectors, public and private. Peoples greatest debt and asset is their home, companies have been able to raise money through issuing bonds that are only competitive because government bond yields are so low (upcoming cash crunch for companies?), public spending debt has only been increasing, throw in student loan debt, auto loan debt, credit card debt. You get the picture of the pressure rising interest rates will do to everyone. If only wages were increasing fast enough to be able to service this debt. But they are not.
I dont know where I was going with that. But there it is.
But I guess one thing that I think is important to say is that we are entering a new era of rising rising interest rates, which can keep the dollar strong but will put huge pressure on the debt market that is already hard to service in the private sector, much less public one.
Not sure how to tie this into bitcoin but hey, was bored, thought id share some thoughts on something no one seems to be thinking about anymore. My thoughts are long term. No fear mongering intended.
Linear Mode
