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Old 11-23-2006, 02:40 PM   #1
europrince
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$20B warning on Kyoto



http://www.canada.com/nationalpost/f...e-3b6df2a79e2c


$20B warning on Kyoto

Paul Vieira
Financial Post


Thursday, November 23, 2006


OTTAWA - Meeting Kyoto targets will cost the Canadian economy a third of its output or force Ottawa to spend $20-billion by 2012 to buy international credits, says one of the country's leading business groups.

Jayson Myers, chief economist for the Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters, will lay out this scenario today before the House of Commons environment committee. His appearance comes as the all-party committee studies a Liberal MP's private member's bill aimed at compelling the Conservative government to adhere to Canada's obligations under the Kyoto climate-change accord.

"It is a reality check, yes, and it is for all parties," Mr. Myers said in an interview. "If governments continue to develop policy based on targets that cannot be met, the experience shows that leads to counterproductive policies."

Under Kyoto, Canada agreed to cut its greenhouse-gas emissions to 6% below 1990 levels, which stood at 599 megatonnes, during the 2008-to-2012 period. Canada was 27% above 1990 levels in 2004, and Mr. Myers expects the country to be 30% above 1990 levels once 2005 data are calculated.

Environment Minister Rona Ambrose has been criticized for saying Canada cannot meet its Kyoto obligations. The NDP, for instance, has said the government must adhere to the Kyoto targets in exchange for its support for the Conservative environmental legislation.

The government's Clean Air Act, which the three opposition parties oppose, is set to go to a special all-party committee. It is expected the opposition will attempt to rewrite the legislation.

Mr. Myers said that since 1990, Canada's carbon output has increased by an average of 1% less than the rate of economic growth. He has calculated that technological progress in reducing emission intensity would have to accelerate by eight times, or 700%, during the next five years to meet Kyoto targets.

"You would have to have widespread replacement of energy sources, widespread improvement in vehicles currently on the road, and widespread replacement of existing industrial machinery. It's not going to happen in five years," Mr. Myers said.

As a result, only two options remain for legislators: Reduce economic output by 30%, or roughly $300-billion, by shutting down factories and taking vehicles off the road; or purchase the equivalent of about $5-billion a year, between 2008 to 2012, of emission credits as allowed under Kyoto, for a total of $20-billion.

The $20-billion figure is based on buying enough credits for each year between 2008 and 2012 to make up Canada's expected shortfall, of 215.7 megatonnes, at an estimated cost of $20 per tonne.

Under the former Liberal government's environment plan, up to $5-billion was set aside to purchase credits for the 2008 to 2012 period.

Mr. Myers warned the $20 per tonne figure -- used by the Auditor General's environment watchdog in her recent report -- may be low. "Canada is not on alone in being unable to meet the Kyoto targets," he said. "So if everybody is serious about this, everybody will be buying emission credits. So the demand for these credits is going to be much higher than supply and prices will go up."

Mr. Myers and others have backed Ms. Ambrose's claim that Canada cannot meet Kyoto. Federal documents prepared this year indicated Canada could not meet the targets and it was up to the government to determine "whether or when to acknowledge" this fact.

He said he expects to be attacked by pro-Kyoto MPs. "But I hope the MPs realize that if we are not going to jeopardize economic growth, the only way we are going to realize emissions reductions is by the accelerating technological process -- either through better energy efficiency or by developing alternative sources of energy.

© National Post 2006
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Old 11-23-2006, 03:04 PM   #2
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They wont be able to pull that off, its highly unrealistic. Im all for clean air and such, but at the expense of what? Economic growth? Canadian industry?

They should look for a more fiscally sound and a more practical solution. What will the $20B buy? Credits? So they spend 20 billion dollars in penalties basically?
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Old 11-23-2006, 03:12 PM   #3
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There's still no evidence that Kyoto is the best solution. It's more a wealth-sharing program then it is a pollution fighting plan. I'm all for punishing companies that pollute & paying credits, but what will the end result be?

The environmental lobby is too strong right now, they've got this agenda pushed down everyone's throat and any alternate suggestion is labelled anti-environmental. I have a problem with the Kyoto propaganda, there isn't enough debate on the subject so there's a lack of objective material about it.
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Old 11-23-2006, 03:23 PM   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jstalin
There's still no evidence that Kyoto is the best solution. It's more a wealth-sharing program then it is a pollution fighting plan. I'm all for punishing companies that pollute & paying credits, but what will the end result be?

So if a counrty doesnt meet its quota, they get fined credits to make up for it? Seems like if a country is willing to pay, the environment still suffers. Im no tree hugger but 20 billion is a big waste. Excuse my ignorance, but is China a part of Kyoto aswell?
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Old 11-23-2006, 03:25 PM   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BMWags
So if a counrty doesnt meet its quota, they get fined credits to make up for it? Seems like if a country is willing to pay, the environment still suffers. Im no tree hugger but 20 billion is a big waste. Excuse my ignorance, but is China a part of Kyoto aswell?
Basically. That's the problem, it doesn't really address the causes of pollution, nor does it propose a solution. Throwing money around is just a feel-good measure, I'm amazed at how militant people are in defending the Kyoto
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Old 11-23-2006, 03:32 PM   #6
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Money gets wasted, and nothing gets done....awesome

So is China a part of the Kyoto accord too?
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Old 11-23-2006, 03:37 PM   #7
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China signed it, yes. Most countries have signed it, except for the US, Australia, and some African countries.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kyoto_P...port_for_Kyoto
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Old 11-23-2006, 03:38 PM   #8
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^^ I believe they are, but they're not bound to the same goals as the other big players
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