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Old 12-08-2010, 07:17 AM   #1
Mister
2nd Gear Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Brantford
Posts: 63
An American perspective on Canada-Bush Cable 04OTTAWA3115



04OTTAWA311
2004-11-18 19:07 sent
2010-12-01 18:06 release wiki
This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 04 OTTAWA 003115

SIPDIS

NOFORN

NSC FOR NSA RICE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/17/2009
TAGS: CA PGOV PREL
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR PRESIDENT BUSH,S VISIT TO CANADA,
NOVEMBER 30 - DECEMBER 1, 2004

Classified By: Ambassador Cellucci, reasons 1.4 (b) (d)

Summary and Key Themes
----------------------

1. (C/NF) The Canadian Government and the Embassy strongly
welcome your visit and the opportunities it will afford to
advance our broad bilateral relationship. The two key themes
I would stress for your visit are partnership and
reassurance. The Canadians need to be reassured that at the
end of the day, whatever tactical disagreements we may have
over Iraq and individual trade cases, we are firmly united
across the world,s longest undefended border by common
values, shared political heritage, and the largest bilateral
trading relationship in the planet,s history. We need to
send the message that we value Canada with no strings
attached. The early timing of this visit will help make this
point.

2. (C/NF) Specifically, it would be very helpful if you came
to Ottawa with three key public messages. First, a positive
signal demonstrating movement on BSE, short of resolution but
beyond &we,re working on it.8 A firm date for completion
of the regulation would give PM Martin a huge political boost
and help beleaguered Canadian ranchers get through the
winter. Second, appreciation for the positive role Canadians
play in the world as peacekeepers and in transmitting our
shared political and cultural values to failed and failing
states. And third, personal thanks for our close cooperation
in defending the continent against terrorism, both in border
security, and in the larger fight to roll back the
availability of weapons of mass destruction, contain the
activities of terrorist groups, and support development that
will provide alternatives to terrorism.

3. (C/NF) Several themes about the future would also be
helpful for your private meetings. You should note the
substantial Canadian support to date for Iraq reconstruction
and encourage Canada to play a larger role in the development
of political and security institutions there. You should
promise continued close cooperation in places such as Sudan,
Afghanistan, and Haiti, and solicit PM Martin,s views on how
to best synergize our efforts. And finally, you should
commit to focus on settling our trade and environmental
disputes. End Summary

Martin,s Minority Government Stable, but Weak
---------------------------------------------

4. (C) After governing in majority for ten years, the Liberal
Party called elections June 28 to gain a mandate for PM
Martin, who succeeded Jean Chretien in December 2003. The
Liberals were hurt by a scandal involving the disbursement of
public monies in Quebec, and the Martin government was
reduced to minority status, the first in Canada since 1979.
In the first week of Parliament, Martin was able to loosely
win over the New Democratic Party, putting him neck-and-neck
with the Conservatives and the separatist Bloc Quebecois.
Both the Liberal-NDP and the Conservative-Bloc alignments are
very tentative, however, and different issue-driven
coalitions are likely to emerge on an ad hoc basis.

5. (SBU) Predictions on how long the government will last
range from six months to two years. Canadians do not want to
go to the polls soon and the Government and Opposition know
it. But given the nature of Canada,s political system, the
Government,s fall is never more than one bad decision away.

6. (C/NF) The Liberal's thin margin leads Martin to exercise
extreme caution, which some observers are now touting as weak
leadership. The PM has made it clear that he will not try to
carry out an aggressive agenda, and on issues such as missile
defense, would just as soon wait rather than try to tackle it
now and risk a negative vote.

Seeking Canada,s Place in the World
-----------------------------------

7. (SBU) All of this is taking place in the context of a
certain amount of soul-searching here on Canada,s decline
from &middle power8 status to that of an &active
observer8 of global affairs, a trend which some Canadians
believe should be reversed. In the short term the country,s
priorities are improving the quality of life for Canadian
citizens and there is little support for increasing defense
spending (currently among the lowest per capita in NATO) or
the foreign affairs budget. PM Martin has promised to focus
his government on policies to perpetuate the &Canadian
economic miracle,8 help cities, improve health care, and
provide easier access to child-care. However, he has also
made modest increases in the defense budget and has announced
plans to add 5,000 troops to the armed forces.

Engagement on Homeland Security
-------------------------------

8. (SBU) Within the constraints of weak public support and
low funding, PM Martin has made his foreign affairs and
homeland security bureaucracies more capable and has kept
Canada selectively active in global issues. In the wake of
the September 11 attacks, Canada has implemented a range of
practical measures that improve Canada,s homeland security
while facilitating the flow of people and commerce across our
common border. Starting with the December 2001 Smart Border
Action Plan with the U.S., changes include enhancements to
aviation security, full compliance with UN and other
multilateral conventions, and strengthening of financial
controls. In the fall of 2003 Canada undertook an aggressive
reorganization of its security and border agencies,
consolidating them into a structure similar to that of DHS,
and in April 2004 rolled out its first-ever national security
strategy. Bilateral efforts have resulted in better
information sharing, joint targeting, and smoother flow of
low-risk traffic.

9. (S/NF) A potential irritant on the Canadian side that may
be raised has to do with sharing of intelligence regarding
Iraq operations. The government is aware that we are
creating a separate US-UK-Australia channel for sharing
sensitive intelligence, including information that
trationally has been U.S. eyes only. The GOC has expressed
concern at multiple levels that their exclusion from a
traditional "four-eyes" construct is "punishment" for
Canada,s non-participation in Iraq and they fear that the
Iraq-related channel may evolve into a more permanent
"three-eyes" only structure. PM Martin may raise this with
you privately.

A Modest but Effective Agenda on Global Affairs
--------------------------------------------- --

10. (C) PM Martin has also kept Canada in the game
internationally. In 2002 Ottawa sent 750 soldiers to
Afghanistan where they served with distinction in Khandahar,
and Canada led the maritime task force monitoring movement in
the Persian Gulf, a service that began with an eye on
Afghanistan but later was useful in the lead-up to Operation
Iraqi Freedom. Ottawa continued to support democratization
in Afghanistan, leading the ISAF mission from February to
August 2004, and contributing 2,300 of 7,100 troops. Canada
has been active in development and elections support for
Afghanistan, committing USD 500 million to a wide-variety of
programs through 2009. Finally, Canada has pledged to deploy
a Provincial Reconstruction Team, possibly to Khandahar, in
the fall of 2005.

11. (C) In Haiti, Canada has provided civilian police
officers, a sizable aid budget, and positive involvement in
diplomatic efforts on the ground. Canada has been largely in
synch with our efforts to seek a durable solution to Sudan,s
current and chronic crisis. PM Martin, who met with
President al-Bashir in Sudan last week, supports the
&responsibility to protect8 as an obligation of each
government and a core function of the international community
through the United Nations. Canada has allocated US$16
million to support the African Union in Sudan.
12. (SBU) Despite opposition to our invasion of Iraq, Canada
has offered strong support for Iraqi reconstruction, saying
"we can't afford to fail." The GOC quickly committed funds,
pledging about US$ 240 million in Madrid, and made active
efforts to leverage contributions from countries that were
initially hesitant. Over two-thirds of Canada's aid has been
allocated and over half has been disbursed on projects such
as police trainers in Jordan. Canada also supports Paris Club
efforts on debt reduction.

Trade and the Border: Vital Links for Canada
--------------------------------------------

13. (SBU) The U.S. and Canada have the largest bilateral
trade relationship in the history of the world and over 95%
of that trade is trouble-free. The billion dollars a day in
trade with the U.S. generates about a third of Canada,s GDP,
with energy exports and the integrated North American auto
industry dominating the picture.
14. (SBU) Since implementation of NAFTA ten years ago,
US-Canada trade has doubled. Most Canadians see NAFTA as a
success but are frustrated by its limits, thrown into relief
by U.S. trade remedy actions on softwood lumber and pork.
Expectations that NAFTA would give Canadians greater control
over US actions have largely been disappointed. The softwood
case remains a long-running and intractable irritant; even
so, Canadian lumber exports boomed last year in response to
US housing demand.

15. (SBU) There are trade disputes and then there is beef.
Reopening the border to trade in live cattle is Canada's most
pressing bilateral concern and our top priority for this
visit. Cut out of our highly integrated North American
market since 2003, Canadian ranchers have lost over $2
billion to date. Canada has spent $400 million on relief for
the cattle industry, but many farmers and their suppliers may
not survive another winter. Indefinite delays and the
perceived unpredictability of the U.S. regulatory process
have soured views of the U.S. in some of the most
traditionally pro-American regions of Canada. Issuance of
the new rule, or at least a firm commitment to a date for
completion, would help restore public confidence and give the
GoC some political room to respond to other U.S. priorities.
In the long term, failure to resolve the problem will result
in two North American beef industries, reducing efficiencies
and stiffening competition in traditional US export markets.
Significantly, movement on beef will give Martin political
space to cooperate more on security.

16. (U) Canada enjoys an enviable economic situation, with
steady budget surpluses and the most sharply-reduced debt
burden in the G-7. Although the economic outlook is rosy,
the currency's rapid appreciation against the U.S dollar,
driven partly by rising commodity prices, could put a damper
on exports, and there are concerns here about global
imbalances and the sustainability of the U.S. economic
recovery. Even with strong economic fundamentals, Canadian
GDP growth is projected to lag that of the U.S. in 2004.

continued
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There are two kinds of drivers out there.BMW drivers and all the !@#$% Rest. U want to catch a bimmer ,u better have a bimmer.
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Old 12-08-2010, 07:20 AM   #2
Mister
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Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Brantford
Posts: 63
continued

17. (U) In addition to worries about exchange rate risk and
perennial trade disputes, Canadians feel increasingly
vulnerable to &border risk8. Exporters worry about
lengthening border delays due to infrastructure overload and
to tighter security measures such as prior notice
requirements. Application of USVISIT fingerprint and photo
requirements to Canadian non-citizen residents, and the
possibility that eventually Canadians will require passports
to enter the U.S., have sparked public anxiety among
Canadians. Businesses fear that future terrorist incidents
could lead to catastrophic border closings and strongly
support the GoC,s efforts to strengthen bilateral security
cooperation. Continued DHS engagement with Canada via the
Smart Border Action Plan, the Ridge-McLellan dialogue, and
regular working-level meetings, is a key element in managing
this anxiety and addressing underlying problems. The GoC is
pushing to accelerate progress and add to the &Smart
Border8 agenda in its version of the North American
Initiative, &Beyond Smart Borders8.

Energy Inter-Dependency
-----------------------

18. (U) Canada is by far the United States' largest foreign
source of energy. It is our largest supplier of petroleum,
as well as our leading external source of natural gas,
uranium, and electric power. With Alberta,s oil sands now
classified as &proven reserves,8 Canada,s petroleum
resources of 180 billion barrels are second only to Saudi
Arabia,s.

19. (U) Canada,s northern territories contain large energy
resources, notably natural gas deposits in the delta of the
Mackenzie River, several hundred miles east of Alaska,s
Prudhoe Bay. The energy industry expects that two gas
pipelines will be built, one from the Mackenzie Delta and the
other from Alaska,s North Slope. As the regulatory
framework for the Alaska line develops, industry will have to
determine the pipeline,s exact route both in Alaska and as
it passes through Canada.

20. (U) Canada's electric power sector is interconnected at
numerous points with the U.S. grid and has for decades been a
large supplier of power to the U.S. market. The U.S./Canada
Joint Task Force that investigated the August 2003 power
outage recommended the creation of a North American Electric
Reliability Organization, which would implement mandatory
standards for electricity transmission in both countries.
Canadian players in this industry are intensely interested in
the shape of proposed U.S. energy legislation, as it affects
their future strategies.

Environmental Issues
--------------------

21. (U) The U.S. and Canada cooperate closely on a broad
range of environmental issues. Together we have made
significant progress on key issues, including trans-boundary
air and water pollution, regulation of pesticides and
chemicals and protection of the Great Lakes.

22. (C) There are, however, a number of thorny cross-border
water issues still unresolved, including Canadian demands
that the U.S. move a derelict fishing vessel (Victoria M)
mistakenly scuttled in Canadian waters, controversy over the
proposed clean-up of pollution of the Columbia River from a
Canadian smelter in British Columbia and North Dakota,s
plans to mitigate flooding at Devils Lake by pumping water
through a canal system to the Red River.

23. (C) The Canadians have raised these issues before at
senior levels and are likely to do so again. The most
pressing of these problems is Devils Lake, where Canada
believes that the state outlet from the lake to the Red River
would violate the Boundary Waters Treaty. North Dakota has
almost completed its canal system and plans to start pumping
water in the spring of 2005. Canada has asked for U.S.
agreement to &refer8 this issue to the International Joint
Commission for study and recommendations, but we have not yet
responded to that request. The Embassy believes it would be
in our interest to agree to a &reference,8 tightly limited
in scope and time-frame.

24. (U) Canada formally ratified the Kyoto Accord at the end
of 2002, despite vocal opposition from some provincial
governments and industries. While political approaches to
the climate change issue have differed between the U.S. and
Canada, practical cooperation has been close. In 2002, we
signed agreements on Renewable Energy and Climate Science,
and formed a bilateral Working Group on Climate Change. Few
Canadians understand just how much we do on climate change,
reducing U.S. efforts only to Kyoto. Canada participates in
several U.S.-led multilateral initiatives, such as the Carbon
Sequestration Leadership Forum and the International
Partnership for the Hydrogen Economy. We expect that they
will soon join the Methane to Markets Partnership.

Visit Canada's Classified Web Site at
hxxp://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/ottawa

CELLUCCI

After reading this cable I feel very uneasy being a Canadian. I always knew we Canada was the real energy force behind the United States. 180 billion barrels of OIL second only to Saudia Arabia,Natural Gas reserves off the chart. It seems to Me the US needs us more than we need them.For the record Arctic waters are ours not yours.Next cable Obama. All Canadians Please read.Mister
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Old 12-08-2010, 07:24 AM   #3
Mister
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Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Brantford
Posts: 63
An American perspective on Canada-Obama Cable 09OTTAWA64

09OTTAWA64
2009-01-22 16:04 sent
2010-12-01 18:06 release wiki
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Ottawa

VZCZCXRO2711
OO RUEHGA RUEHHA RUEHMT RUEHQU RUEHVC
DE RUEHOT #0064/01 0221635
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 221635Z JAN 09
FM AMEMBASSY OTTAWA
TO RHEHNSC/WHITE HOUSE NSC WASHINGTON DC IMMEDIATE
INFO RUCNCAN/ALL CANADIAN POSTS COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9010
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 OTTAWA 000064

SIPDIS

FOR PRESIDENT OBAMA FROM CHARGE D'AFFAIRES BREESE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/22/2019
TAGS: PREL ETRD ECON MARR SENV AF CA
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR THE PRESIDENT'S TRIP TO OTTAWA

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Terry A. Breese, reason 1.4 (d)

1. (C) Mr. President, Mission Canada warmly welcomes you
and the First Lady to Ottawa. We and Canadians alike are
thrilled that your first foreign trip as President will be to
Canada, which Canadians claim as a long-standing tradition
reflecting the vital importance of this bilateral
relationship between two democratic neighbors.

SOME HOME TRUTHS
----------------

2. (C) Your enormous popularity among Canadians (an 81 pct
approval rating) is to Conservative Prime Minister Stephen
Harper both a blessing -- because he can for the first time
since taking office in 2006 gain politically from public and
policy association with the U.S. President -- and a curse --
because no Canadian politician of any stripe is nearly as
popular, respected, or inspiring as you are to Canadian
voters, a genuine factor in the historically low turnout in
the October 2008 Canadian federal election. Many Canadians,
especially university students, volunteered on your campaign,
and busloads traveled to Washington for your inauguration.

3. (C) Your decision to make Ottawa your first foreign
destination as President will do much to diminish --
temporarily, at least -- Canada's habitual inferiority
complex vis-a-vis the U.S. and its chronic but accurate
complaint that the U.S. pays far less attention to Canada
than Canada does to us.

4. (C) The minority status in Parliament of Harper's
Conservative Party means that it and all other parties now
remain in almost permanent campaign mode; there have been
three successive minority governments (one Liberal, two
Conservative). The bottom line questions remain when the
government will fall and on what issue. Your trip will help
to ensure that the government will survive an early February
vote of confidence on the federal budget, in which Canada
will post its first deficit in more than a decade as it
provides a stimulus package of $30-40 billion.

5. (C) The U.S. and Canada enjoy the world's largest
trading relationship, with more than $1.5 billion in two-way
trade crossing the border each day, including 77 pct of all
Canadian exports. With the border central to Canada's
economic well being, Canadians chafe about what they see as a
"thickening of the border" caused by U.S. actions to
strengthen homeland security since 9/11. Canadians claim
that these measures have driven up business costs and delayed
border crossers. The business and trade communities in the
U.S. and Canada both believe that the "balance" between trade
and security has been tilted too far toward security, and are
hopeful that your administration will tilt that balance back.
Canada may argue for a new mechanism (separate from the
trilateral Security and Prosperity Partnership) to address
bilateral concerns.

6. (C) Canadians wish that more Americans would recognize
that Canada is the largest source of imported energy for the
U.S. (including for both oil and natural gas), although there
is also keen sensitivity over the higher environmental
footprint of oil from western Canada's oil sands and concern
about the implications for Canada of your energetic calls to
develop renewable energies and reduce our reliance on
imported oil. Canada is also rich in hydroelectric power,
has similar objectives for developing renewables, and is
working strenuously to improve the environmental impact of
production from the oil sands and to expand its own wind
Qproduction from the oil sands and to expand its own wind
power capacity.

7. (C) Given the high integration of our two economies,
Canada will hope for a truly North American discussion of
economic stimulus, job creation, and sectoral support, as in
coordinated bilateral measures on the auto sector (for which
Canada promised a $3.4 billion assistance plan -- 20 pct of
what the U.S. offered, matching a pledge that PM Harper made
to then-President Bush in December) and in the G-20
commitments on financial sector regulation. We should ensure
that both nations continue to design complementary packages
to revive our economies.

8. (C) Although the climate change issue has largely been
the province of the official opposition Liberal Party, the
Conservative government now seeks to set in place measures to
reduce greenhouse gas emissions and advocates a coordinated
policy with the U.S. on expanded efforts to protect our
shared environment. They hope and expect this will be a
central theme of your visit.

OTTAWA 00000064 002 OF 002

9. (C) Arctic sovereignty is a motherhood-and-apple-pie
issue for Canadians of all political persuasions, and they
are deeply suspicious of assertions by the U.S. (and most
other concerned nations) that the Northwest Passage is a
strait for international navigation, not Canada's territorial
sea. The new Arctic policy issued at the end of the Bush
Administration, which reasserted our views on the Northwest
Passage and emphasized cooperation among Arctic nations, has
re-ignited these suspicions.

10. (C) Canada declined to join the U.S. in the invasion of
Iraq and instead concentrated its global counterterrorism
efforts on Afghanistan, including 2500 troops in Kandahar
Province and its largest bilateral donor program worldwide.
With the highest casualty rate among NATO partners and only
about 65,000 Canadian Forces overall, there is virtually zero
willingness across the Canadian political spectrum to extend
the current Parliamentary mandate for these forces in
Afghanistan beyond 2011, but Canada could offer up
significant new funding to strengthen the Afghan National
Army and Afghan National Police. Much will depend upon
convincing Canada that its continued contributions to the
Afghanistan effort are a critical component of your strategy
for success in Afghanistan.

11. (C) No matter which political party forms the Canadian
government during your Administration, Canada will remain one
of our staunchest and most like-minded of allies, our largest
trading and energy partner, and our most reliable neighbor
and friend.

KEY THEMES
----------

12. (SBU) In your public remarks and media availability,
these points would be most useful from Mission Canada's
perspective:

-- Canada is a true friend, trusted ally, valued trading
partner, and democratic model for the world;
-- around the world, the U.S. and Canada are working
together to defeat terrorism, promote economic development
through trade and investment, prevent the proliferation of
weapons of mass destruction, and advance the cause of human
freedom and dignity;
-- Canada and the U.S. are blessed to share the beauties and
riches of North America, and will strive individually and
jointly to protect and preserve its environment, while
ensuring that our nations and the world benefit from its
extensive natural and human resources;
-- our highly integrated economies are now facing enormous
challenges, but with our traditional resilience, creativity,
sacrifice, and cooperation, our two countries will emerge
from this crisis stronger than ever;
-- while we share the prosperity that comes with the world's
largest bilateral trade relationship, we also share the
threats to that prosperity from international terrorism;
-- 21st century technology can help ensure ever more safe
and efficient transit of goods and people across this longest
undefended border in the world, and we need to work together
more fully to understand each other's security and trade
needs and to build a shared vision for the security of our
two nations from new threats while investing in technology
and infrastructure that can secure, support, and expand the
benefits of our trade;
-- the U.S. and Canada maintain extensive cooperation in the
Arctic. The U.S. views the Northwest Passage as a strait
used for international navigation -- not Canada's territorial
sea -- but does not dispute Canada's sovereignty over its
Arctic islands;
-- Canada has paid a disproportionately high price in human
Q-- Canada has paid a disproportionately high price in human
life to help the people of Afghanistan emerge from their dark
era under the Taliban, and the U.S. salutes these Canadian
contributions to the building of a democratic and successful
society in that troubled land and counts on continued
Canadian cooperation to achieve this goal;
-- U.S. Presidents and Canadian Prime Ministers come and go,
but our shared values and aspirations will continue to
underpin a robust, mutually respectful, and hugely successful
friendship and partnership that benefits not only our two
peoples but the world.

Visit Canada,s Economy and Environment Forum at
hxxp://www.intelink.gov/communities/state/can ada

BREESE

This One 5 years later confirms my original feeling of uneasiness.
My MPP has some explaining to do Hardcore.Question is will the sheep lstay down.Mister
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Old 12-08-2010, 07:26 AM   #4
Mister
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Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Brantford
Posts: 63
key themes above.
I can so see Obama speaking this to the masses,can you.What a puppet.Mister
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Old 12-08-2010, 08:02 AM   #5
Mister
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Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Brantford
Posts: 63
carbon tax anyone???

08OTTAWA1258
2008-09-22 18:06
2010-12-01 18:06
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Ottawa

08OTTAWA1258
2008-09-22 18:06
2010-12-01 18:06
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Ottawa
VZCZCXRO8662
PP RUEHGA RUEHHA RUEHMT RUEHQU RUEHVC
DE RUEHOT #1258/01 2661859
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 221859Z SEP 08
FM AMEMBASSY OTTAWA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8532
INFO RUCNCAN/ALL CANADIAN POSTS COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/WHITE HOUSE NSC WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 OTTAWA 001258

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/22/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV CA
SUBJECT: THE U.S. IN THE CANADIAN FEDERAL ELECTION -- NOT!

REF: OTTAWA 1216

Classified By: PolMinCouns Scott Bellard, reason 1.4 (d)

1. (C) Summary. Despite the overwhelming importance of the
U.S. to Canada for its economy and security, bilateral
relations remain the proverbial 900 pound gorilla that no one
wants to talk about in the 2008 Canadian federal election
campaigns. This likely reflects an almost inherent
inferiority complex of Canadians vis-a-vis their sole
neighbor as well as an underlying assumption that the
fundamentals of the relationship are strong and unchanging
and uncertainty about the outcome of the U.S. Presidential
election. End Summary.

2. (C) The United States is overwhelmingly important to
Canada in ways that are unimaginable to Americans. With over
$500 billion in annual trade, the longest unsecured border in
the world, over 200 million border crossings each year, total
investment in each other's countries of almost $400 billion,
and the unique North American Aerospace Defense (NORAD)
partnership to ensure continental security, excellent
bilateral relations are essential to Canada's well being.
Canadians are, by and large, obsessed with U.S. politics --
especially in the 2008 Presidential race -- and follow them
minutely (with many Canadians even wishing they could vote in
this U.S. election rather than their own, according to a
recent poll). U.S. culture infiltrates Canadian life on
every level. 80 pct of Canadians live within 100 miles of
the border, and Canadians tend to visit the U.S. much more
regularly than their American neighbors come here.

3. (C) Logically, the ability of a candidate, or a party,
or most notably the leader of a party successfully to manage
this essential relationship should be a key factor for voters
to judge in casting their ballots. At least so far in the
2008 Canadian federal election campaign, it is not. There
has been almost a deafening silence so far about foreign
affairs in general, apart from Prime Minister Stephen
Harper's pledge on September 10 that Canadian troops would
indeed leave Afghanistan in 2011 according to the terms of
the March 2008 House of Commons motion, commenting that "you
have to put an end on these things." The Liberals -- and
many media commentators -- seized on this as a major
Conservative "flip flop," with Liberal Party leader Stephane
Dion noting on September 10 that "I have been calling for a
firm end date since February 2007" and that "the
Conservatives can't be trusted on Afghanistan; they can't be
trusted on the climate change crisis; they can't be trusted
on the economy." He has returned in subsequent days to the
Conservative record on the environment and the economy, but
has not pursued the Afghan issue further. All three
opposition party leaders joined in calling for the government
to release a Parliamentary Budget Officer's report on the
full costs of the Afghan mission, which PM Harper agreed to
do, with some apparent hesitation. However, no other foreign
policy issues have yet risen to the surface in the campaigns,
apart from New Democrat Party leader Jack Layton opining on
September 7 that "I believe we can say good-bye to the George
Bush era in our own conduct overseas."

4. (C) The U.S. market meltdown has provided some fodder
for campaign rhetoric, with the Conservatives claiming their
earlier fiscal and monetary actions had insulated Canada from
much of the economic problems seen across the border.
(Comment: there is probably more truth in the fact that the
Canadian financial sector does not have a large presence in
QCanadian financial sector does not have a large presence in
U.S. and other foreign markets, and instead concentrates on
the domestic market. The Canadian financial sector has also
been quite conservative in its lending and investment
choices. End comment.) PM Harper has insisted that the
"core" Canadian economy and institutions were sound, while
promising to work closely with "other international players"
(i.e., not specifically the U.S.) to deal with the current
problems. He warned on September 19 that "voters will have
to decide who is best to govern in this period of economic
uncertainty -- do you want to pay the new Liberal tax? Do
you want the Liberals to bring the GST back to 7%?" The
Liberals have counter-claimed that Canada is now the "worst
performing economy in the G8," while noting earlier Liberal
governments had produced eight consecutive balanced budgets
and created about 300,000 new jobs annually between 1993 and
2005. The NDP's Layton argued on September 16 that these
economic woes are "the clearest possible warning that North
American economies under conservative governments, in both
Canada and the United States, are on the wrong track," but
promised only that an NDP government would institute a
"top-to-bottom" review of Canada's regulatory system -- not
delving into bilateral policy territory.

5. (C) On the environment, Liberal leader Dion, in
defending his "Green Shift" plan on September 11, noted that

OTTAWA 00001258 002 OF 002

"both Barack Obama and John McCain are in favor of putting a
price on carbon. Our biggest trading partner is moving
toward a greener future and we need to do so too." PM Harper
has stuck to the standard Conservative references to the
Liberal plan as a "carbon tax, which will hit every consumer
in every sector" and claimed on September 16 that, under
earlier Liberal governments, "greenhouse gas emissions
increased by more than 30 percent, one of the worst records
of industrialized countries." NDP leader Layton argued
that, on the environment, PM Harper "has no plan" while
"Dion's plan is wrong and won't work," unlike the NDP plan to
reward polluters who "clean up their act and imposing
penalties on those that don't," which he said had also been
"proposed by both U.S. Presidential candidates, Barack Obama
and John McCain."

6. (C) NAFTA? Western Hemisphere Travel Initiative?
Border crossing times? The future of NORAD? Canada's role
in NATO? Protection of Canadian water reserves? Canadian
sovereignty in the Arctic and the Northwest Passage? At
least among the leaders of the major parties, these issues
have not come up so far in the campaigns, although they seize
much public attention in normal times. Even in Ontario and
Quebec, with their long and important borders with the U.S.,
the leadership candidates apparently so far have not ventured
to make promises to woo voters who might be disgruntled with
U.S. policies and practices. However, these may still emerge
as more salient issues at the riding level as individual
candidates press the flesh door to door, and may also then
percolate up to the leadership formal debates on October 1
and 2.

7. (C) Why the U.S. relationship appears off the table, at
least so far, is probably be due to several key factors. An
almost inherent Canadian inferiority complex may disincline
Canadian political leaders from making this election about
the U.S. (unlike in the 1988 free trade campaigns) instead of
sticking to domestic topics of bread-and-butter interest to
voters. The leaders may also recognize that bilateral
relations are simply too important -- and successful -- to
turn into political campaign fodder that could backfire.
They may also be viewing the poll numbers in the U.S. and
recognizing that the results are too close to call. Had the
Canadian campaign taken place after the U.S. election, the
Conservatives might have been tempted to claim they could
work more effectively with a President McCain, or the
Liberals with a President Obama. Even this could be a risky
strategy, as perceptions of being too close to the U.S.
leader are often distasteful to Canadian voters; one
recurrent jibe about PM Harper is that he is a "clone of
George W. Bush." Ultimately, the U.S. is like the proverbial
900 pound gorilla in the midst of the Canadian federal
election: overwhelming but too potentially menacing to
acknowledge.

Visit Canada,s Economy and Environment Forum at
hxxp://www.intelink.gov/communities/state/can ada

WILKINS

quote:"both Barack Obama and John McCain are in favor of putting a
price on carbon. Our biggest trading partner is moving
toward a greener future and we need to do so too." PM Harper
has stuck to the standard Conservative references to the
Liberal plan as a "carbon tax, which will hit every consumer
in every sector"

How much carbon does a human expel,I wonder. Mister
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Old 12-08-2010, 08:53 AM   #6
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I didn't have time to read this this morning, I stopped 3/4 of the way on the first one when I didn't find anything. looks interesting
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Old 12-08-2010, 01:06 PM   #7
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hrmm in for later.
any ufo stuff out yet?
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